国联民生陶川：科技创新须“叫好又叫座”，三大动能驱动2026

Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes the necessity for technological innovation to be rooted in industrial applications, transitioning from theoretical concepts to practical implementations to drive solid economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Economic and Market Outlook - The global economy is expected to enter a "tide receding" phase, with the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a clear interest rate reduction path from the new Federal Reserve chair, and a significant decrease in trade policy uncertainty [1]. - Domestic economic growth will focus on three main drivers: enhancing industrial momentum through the establishment of a modern industrial system, boosting productivity via technological advancements, and increasing growth through consumer spending [1][2]. - These three aspects are interconnected and are anticipated to create more expectations for the capital market in 2026, opening up more space for value reassessment [1]. Group 2: Value Reassessment in A-shares - The three main sources of reassessment momentum for A-shares in 2026 include: the implementation of a modern industrial system leading to a rebound in PPI and recovery in manufacturing profits, the emphasis on practical technological applications to avoid "theoretical innovations," and the acceleration of consumer spending driven by changes in fiscal expenditure structure [2]. - The current discussions around the AI bubble in the US stock market highlight a "heavy burden" perspective, where US tech giants are expanding overseas to alleviate profit pressures, but potential triggers for a bubble burst could arise from unfulfilled commercial prospects or the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [2]. - The reassessment of A-shares this year is multifaceted, with macro-level factors such as the central government's elevated focus on the capital market and easing geopolitical tensions between the US and China contributing to the reassessment process [2]. Group 3: Key Economic Drivers - The three critical drivers for China's economy and capital market development in 2026 are: seeking momentum from industry, productivity from technology, and growth from consumer spending [3]. - It is essential for technological innovation to be effectively implemented to avoid value reassessment becoming unfounded, with investors advised to focus on the actual progress of technology transfer and industrial applications [3].