日本加息风暴真的来了！你的投资还安全吗？

Core Viewpoint - The era of "free leverage" in global financial markets, largely supported by Japan's ultra-low interest rates, is coming to an end as the Bank of Japan prepares to raise interest rates after more than two decades of monetary easing [1][3][10]. Group 1: Economic Factors - Japan's core inflation rate has risen for fifty consecutive months, indicating persistent inflationary pressure, while wage growth has not kept pace with rising prices, leading to a decrease in real purchasing power for consumers [3][4]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, from 110 yen per dollar to 160 yen, a decline of over 30%, exacerbating import-driven inflation for a country heavily reliant on energy and food imports [3][4]. - The Japanese government's extensive fiscal stimulus has increased inflation and created risks of fiscal imbalance, necessitating a shift in monetary policy to cool down the overheated economy [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Market Dynamics - The practice of yen carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets globally, has been a significant driver of capital flows into markets like the US and Europe, with over 90% of these funds directed there [4][6]. - A potential interest rate hike, even a modest increase from 0% to 0.5%, would disrupt this carry trade, leading to a significant outflow of capital from global markets as investors rush to close positions [7][10]. - The anticipated market reaction to Japan's interest rate hike could lead to a massive sell-off in assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies, as seen in August when a hint of a rate increase caused significant market declines [7][8]. Group 3: Global Market Implications - The interconnectedness of global capital markets means that a downturn in US and Hong Kong markets due to carry trade unwinding could negatively impact investor sentiment in the A-share market, despite its limited direct exposure to yen carry trades [8][9]. - The potential appreciation of the yen following an interest rate hike could create upward pressure on other Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan, complicating the competitive landscape for exports [9][10]. - The upcoming interest rate changes in Japan are expected to have a prolonged impact on global markets, leading to a gradual revaluation of assets rather than a sudden market crash, which poses a challenge for investors [10][11].