英国通胀超预期降温，降息“圣诞礼物”有望兑现！

Core Points - The UK inflation rate has dropped to its lowest level in eight months, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising only 3.2% year-on-year in November, down from 3.6% in October, primarily due to falling prices of cakes, biscuits, and breakfast cereals [1][4] - This unexpected decline in inflation has led traders to believe that a rate cut by the Bank of England is now almost certain, with the market fully pricing in two rate cuts by the end of April next year [4][6] Group 1 - The inflation rate of 3.2% is below economists' expectations of 3.5% and the Bank of England's forecast of 3.4%, resulting in a 0.7% drop in the GBP/USD exchange rate [4] - The Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics noted that the speed of inflation decline was faster than anticipated, suggesting that this would likely prompt the Bank of England to consider a rate cut [6] - The service sector prices increased by 4.4% year-on-year, slightly better than the Bank of England's current expectation of 4.5%, providing crucial data ahead of the Bank's decision [6] Group 2 - The UK economy contracted for the second consecutive month in October, influenced by market speculation ahead of the budget announcement, which aims to alleviate cost-of-living pressures [7] - The Bank of England's preliminary analysis indicates that government policies could reduce the inflation rate by up to 0.5 percentage points by next spring [8] - Producer input prices have continued to rise, with fuel and raw material costs increasing by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth in over a year [8] Group 3 - The Chief Economist at RSM UK suggested that while December's inflation rate might see a slight uptick due to tobacco tax and potential food price rebounds, the significant drop in November's inflation opens the door for further rate cuts in early next year [9] - Analysts from Bloomberg indicated that the substantial slowdown in November's inflation sets the stage for a rate cut by the Bank of England in December, although they expect only one more cut next year due to lingering cost pressures [9]