2 年 1 亿到 130 亿：「预测市场」的崛起

Core Insights - The prediction market is experiencing exponential growth, transitioning from a niche activity to a multi-billion dollar financial sector, driven by betting on sports, politics, and economic indicators [1] - Monthly betting amounts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by November 2023, indicating a structural shift in pricing and trading public event outcomes through "event contracts" [1] Market Capitalization and Valuation - Kalshi raised $1 billion at a valuation of $11 billion, backed by prominent investors such as Paradigm, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and CapitalG [3] - Intercontinental Exchange announced a potential investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, bringing its valuation to approximately $8 billion, reflecting strong confidence from traditional financial institutions in prediction markets as a new type of financial derivative trading platform [3] Regulatory Landscape and Compliance - Despite many states in the U.S. prohibiting sports betting, prediction market platforms argue they offer financial contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than traditional gambling [4] - Polymarket received CFTC approval to operate in the U.S., allowing it to provide services through brokers and directly to customers, enhancing its legitimacy and public recognition, especially ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election [4] Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Although Polymarket previously dominated in trading volume, Kalshi has rapidly gained ground, with both platforms now holding roughly equal market shares, collectively reaching about $9 billion in total bets last month [5] - The competition has intensified, with both platforms forming partnerships with major sports leagues and engaging in aggressive marketing strategies, including collaborations with Google Finance and media outlets like CNN and CNBC [5] Diverse Betting Categories - In addition to political elections, economic data and pop culture have become popular betting subjects, with Kalshi users predicting an 80% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January [6] - The prediction market's reach has expanded into niche areas, with Kalshi users betting on the Rotten Tomatoes score of the latest "Avatar" movie and Polymarket users wagering on the winner of the reality show "Survivor" [6]