IC外汇平台：非农数据公布 失业率突破关键阈值风险高企

Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's next policy direction remains uncertain following the release of non-farm payroll data, with the market initially leaning towards a dovish interpretation, but IC Forex platform suggests that this expectation lacks sufficient support to fully validate market bets on a rate cut in Q1 2024 (currently, the market estimates a 25% probability of a rate cut in January and 55% in March) [1] - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield tested a low of 3.45% but did not break below this level, while the yield curve showed a bull steepening pattern with yields across different maturities declining between 1.4 basis points (two-year) and 3.3 basis points (30-year) [1] - U.S. stock markets returned to calm, with major indices closing mixed; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.25% [1] Employment Data - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs, failing to reverse the weak trend from October, which saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs primarily due to adjustments in government statistical methods [3] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November, marking a four-year high and exceeding market expectations of 4.5%. This increase has raised concerns as the unemployment rate has been on an upward trend since June [3] - If the missing October unemployment data is assumed to be 4.5%, the current unemployment rate is close to the critical threshold of 0.5 percentage points above the lowest three-month moving average, indicating a potential early recession [3] Economic Indicators - The risk of the unemployment rate breaching the threshold remains high as it is currently elevated, and with the exit of December 2024 data from the statistical window, the lowest three-month moving average will rise to 4.1% [4] - The market is believed to be underestimating the likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing its monetary policy normalization cycle early next year, supported by strong retail sales data and PMI results [4] - Retail control group sales increased by 0.8% month-on-month, surpassing the market expectation of 0.4%, while the composite PMI index fell to 53, a six-month low, indicating a weakening economic growth momentum [4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The UK’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data significantly underperformed expectations, reinforcing the necessity for the Bank of England to consider further rate cuts [5] - The Hungarian National Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% but adopted a more dovish stance, prompting discussions about potential rate cuts next year, as overall inflation and core inflation rates have declined [6] - The Hungarian central bank revised down its inflation forecasts for this year and next, with the current inflation rate expected to be 4.4% and next year's at 3.2%, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining positive real interest rates [7]