算力“牛”回？——通信ETF（515880）大涨超5.5%点评

Market Performance - The market experienced a significant increase in the afternoon, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recording a transaction volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.39%. The computing power sector saw substantial gains, with the communication ETF rising by 5.56% and the AI ETF on the ChiNext increasing by 5.10% [1]. Factors Driving the Increase - Following the release of Google's Gemini 3 series models, market expectations for computing power in 2026 have risen. In addition to GPUs, ASICs are becoming a significant incremental component in upstream computing chips, which may continue to drive the acceleration of optical modules and other accessories [2]. - Concerns about Japan's interest rate hikes affecting global market liquidity have eased. Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masazumi Wakatabe, indicated that Japan must enhance its neutral interest rate through fiscal policy and growth strategies. While a rise in the neutral rate could lead to natural interest rate hikes, the Bank of Japan should avoid premature tightening of monetary policy [2]. Future Outlook - The demand for computing power is expected to continue growing, particularly in the training segment, with projections for increased requirements in 2024. The performance breakthroughs of Google's Gemini 3 Pro have exceeded expectations, challenging previous beliefs about diminishing returns in pre-training. Major model manufacturers are expected to invest more in pre-training [3]. - Innovations in video models, such as Google's use of autoregression for generating images and videos, may enhance content consistency and could be adopted industry-wide. The inference segment of large models is already demonstrating significant utility, with advanced overseas models typically offering both standard and premium versions, indicating substantial scaling potential in inference [3]. - By 2026, computing power is anticipated to remain one of the most promising sectors in technology. Google's comprehensive AI ecosystem and decades of development may accelerate advancements in the AI industry, with computing chips still in an upward trend. Although there are currently no blockbuster AI applications, large models are enhancing traditional business growth for cloud providers, which have shown high performance since 2023. This revenue growth may support ongoing capital expenditures without excessive concerns in the short to medium term [4]. Investment Focus - The optical module market is expected to double in size by 2026, with continued high growth rates anticipated beyond 2027. The communication ETF is highlighted as a key area of interest, as it holds core stocks from the overseas computing power industry chain, with optical modules, servers, optical fibers, and copper connections making up over 76% of its components. This ETF is seen as a good representation of the fundamental performance of the overseas computing power sector, suggesting a strategy of continued attention and opportunistic investments [4][5].