【首席观察】全球流动性变奏

Core Viewpoint - The market is reassessing the value of "time" as the era of "free" yen and "abundant" dollars comes to an end, leading to a potential revaluation of risk premiums based on current cash flows and valuation safety nets [2][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On December 15, a "global liquidity variation" was observed, with mixed signals: U.S. Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened, indicating a marginal easing of liquidity, while the yen strengthened and risk appetite contracted [3][4]. - Despite a decline in major U.S. stock indices, certain sectors like consumer ETFs showed resilience, suggesting a shift in market dynamics towards undervalued areas such as value stocks and small-cap stocks [4][5]. - The market is experiencing a transition where investors are less willing to pay high premiums for distant narratives, focusing instead on current cash flows and valuation safety [5][20]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points signals a shift in monetary policy, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity through short-term Treasury purchases [6][8]. - The Fed's actions are not traditional quantitative easing but are aimed at ensuring sufficient liquidity in the banking system, indicating a complex approach to managing interest rates and market expectations [7][10]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue its normalization process, with market anticipation of further interest rate hikes, which could impact yen financing costs and exchange rate volatility [10][13]. Group 3: Risk Assessment - The potential for a stronger yen could lead to a chain reaction affecting global risk assets, prompting a shift from high-leverage, high-volatility investments to more stable cash flow assets [14][19]. - The current environment suggests that while liquidity remains, the cost of "time" has increased, leading to a re-evaluation of risk premiums across various asset classes [15][22]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality earnings, risk control, and opportunities in the Chinese market, rather than blindly chasing high beta assets [22].