银价破66美元历史高位！分析师呼吁：警惕短期回调风险

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, with the London spot silver price exceeding $66 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 3.5% as of December 17. The price has risen more than 32% since hitting a low on November 24, driven by macroeconomic liquidity, supply-demand imbalances, and strong investment demand [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - As of December 17, the London spot silver price reached a high of $66.51 per ounce, reflecting a robust upward trend in the past two months [1]. - The gold-silver ratio has fallen to a four-year low due to the significant rise in silver prices [1]. - The global silver market has experienced structural shortages for five consecutive years, with an expected shortfall of 3,660 tons by 2025, driven by industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, has surged, with a 17% annual increase in installed capacity driving silver paste demand [2]. - The supply of silver is constrained, with 72% of mined silver coming from copper, lead, and zinc by-products, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2]. - High leasing rates for London silver and the return of inventories to European markets have contributed to upward price pressure [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts caution about potential short-term price corrections due to overbought conditions, with the RSI indicator for silver exceeding 85, indicating severe overbought status [3]. - The COMEX silver market is facing significant physical delivery demands, leading to a "short squeeze" scenario that amplifies price increases [2][3]. - There is a growing concern that high prices may lead to reduced industrial demand, and any unexpected monetary policy changes, such as interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, could impact global liquidity and market dynamics [3].