3 6 Ke·2025-12-17 12:39Core Insights - The central theme of the articles revolves around the impact of the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement subsidy policy and the upcoming changes in the new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax policy in China, particularly in 2026 [1][3][11]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy in Beijing has been suspended, but the central government has indicated that the policy will continue in 2026 with further optimization [1][4][11]. - The NEV purchase tax exemption is set to expire soon, transitioning to a 50% reduction, which will increase the cost for consumers [3][9]. - The suspension of local subsidies has led to a decline in consumer enthusiasm, although interest has started to recover as the year-end approaches [4][6]. Consumer Behavior - Two main groups of consumers are currently in a state of "wait-and-see": those interested in locking in orders for models with tax guarantees and those waiting for the specifics of the new subsidy policy [7][12]. - The demand for vehicle replacements has diminished as many potential buyers have already made purchases during the subsidy period, leaving only those with less urgent needs [6][10]. Sales Performance - Recent data indicates a significant decline in vehicle sales, with a 32% year-on-year drop in retail sales during the first week of December [9][10]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with expectations that the upcoming policy changes may lead to further fluctuations in demand [11][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the subsidy levels for the "old-for-new" policy in 2026 will likely be reduced, which could impact market growth [11][12]. - Despite the anticipated challenges, the overall vehicle market is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory due to ongoing improvements in NEV technology and competitive pricing [13].