油价跌至近五年谷底，绝地反击的机会仍存？

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices have dropped to near five-year lows due to a global supply surplus, which may help slow production growth and boost demand, potentially alleviating the expected supply surplus by 2026 [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of December 12, the active oil rig count in the U.S. has decreased by approximately 14% compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential reduction in supply [1] - The WTI crude oil contract for January delivery closed at $55.27 per barrel, while the Brent crude contract for February delivery closed at $58.92 per barrel, marking the lowest levels since February 2021 [2] - The decline in oil prices this year is primarily attributed to a supply surplus combined with weak market sentiment, exacerbated by OPEC+ policies [2] Group 2: OPEC+ Influence - OPEC+ has accelerated the increase of production quotas earlier and faster than expected, contributing to the oversupply in the market and driving down oil prices [4] - Non-OPEC supply, particularly from the U.S., has remained strong due to improved efficiency among shale oil producers, further expanding the supply surplus [4] - OPEC+ aims to prevent further loss of market share and address the issue of excess idle capacity, which is projected to be 4.6 million barrels per day in 2024, more than double the 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation of continued global supply surplus is putting pressure on oil prices, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting a surplus of approximately 2.3 million barrels per day this year, increasing to 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026 [7] - The initial phase of oil trading in 2026 is expected to be dominated by rising inventories, which will continue to exert pressure on prices in the short term [8] - The market may face challenges in achieving supply-demand balance, with potential for significant price volatility, contingent on meaningful changes in supply, demand, or policy [8]