再创历史新高，年内大涨超120%！白银为何成贵金属“黑马”

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has reached a historic milestone with spot silver prices surpassing $66 per ounce, marking a significant increase driven by supply-demand imbalances, the onset of a Federal Reserve easing cycle, and a surge in global capital inflows [1][2][5]. Price Movements - As of December 17, spot silver prices hit $66.01 per ounce, up 3.6%, while COMEX silver futures rose over 5% to a peak of $66.5 per ounce [1][2]. - Year-to-date, silver has shown an impressive increase of approximately 128.44%, significantly outperforming gold, which has risen about 64% [2]. Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to three main factors: supply-demand imbalance, expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and concentrated inflows of global capital [2][5]. - The low supply elasticity and inventory levels of silver, combined with strong industrial demand and ongoing ETF investment, have contributed to the bullish market sentiment [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data, including the November non-farm payroll report and retail sales figures, have reinforced expectations of a slowing economy, supporting the Fed's easing policy [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding Japan's monetary policy and its potential impact on global liquidity has also played a role in boosting precious metal prices [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current bullish trend in silver may continue, caution is advised due to accumulating risk factors, including high implied volatility and potential profit-taking as the market adjusts [6][7]. - The global silver inventory is projected to cover only 1-2 months of consumption by 2025, indicating a significant supply constraint [6]. - Some analysts predict that silver prices could reach between $75 and $80 per ounce in a final surge, representing a peak emotional market response [8].