“存款搬家”入市潜力被低估了？机构称万亿级资金可期

Core Insights - The trend of "deposit migration" is gaining attention as deposit rates decline and capital markets heat up, with a potential scale of at least trillions of yuan entering the market [1][2] - The upcoming maturity of a significant amount of time deposits, particularly those with high interest rates, is expected to create liquidity for capital markets [2][3] - The shift in savings behavior, driven by lower interest rates and changing investment preferences, indicates a long-term process of wealth flowing into capital markets [7][9] Deposit Migration Potential - The potential for "deposit migration" is significant, with estimates suggesting that over 60 trillion yuan in time deposits will mature after 2024, creating a substantial liquidity source for capital markets [1][3] - The current environment shows a slowdown in the growth of household time deposits, indicating a shift towards more liquid investment options [5][9] - The trend of "deposit migration" is not just about moving deposits to stocks but also involves reallocating funds into various financial products, including wealth management and bonds [8][9] Impact on Financial Products - Financial institutions are increasingly guiding clients towards stable, low-risk wealth management products as an alternative to traditional time deposits [2][8] - The growth of wealth management products, particularly those with equity components, is expected to increase, potentially bringing nearly 1 trillion yuan in additional funds to the capital market by 2027 [10] - The shift in asset allocation from fixed-income products to equity-related investments reflects changing investor preferences and the need for higher returns [6][10] Economic Context - The overall savings rate has reached a 15-year high, indicating a significant amount of excess savings that could be redirected into various investment avenues [7][8] - The decline in the attractiveness of traditional time deposits, especially those with rates above 3%, is prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies among households [6][9] - The anticipated liquidity from maturing deposits is viewed as a potential catalyst for increased risk appetite in capital markets [2][3]