年末车市上演政策“窗口期”博弈：消费者观望，经销商鼓励先锁单

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the continuation of the "Two New" policy (large-scale equipment updates and vehicle trade-in) for 2026, indicating a focus on domestic demand and market optimization, despite the recent suspension of local trade-in subsidies [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The suspension of Beijing's vehicle trade-in subsidy has led to a temporary decline in consumer enthusiasm, but interest is recovering as consumers aim to take advantage of the remaining tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [2][3]. - The upcoming reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% rate is expected to increase consumer costs, influencing purchasing decisions [1][3]. - The "Two New" policy is anticipated to continue in 2026, but specific implementation details and potential adjustments remain unclear, leading to a cautious market outlook [1][8]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Two main groups of consumers are currently in a wait-and-see mode: those interested in models with tax guarantees and those waiting for the official announcement of trade-in subsidies [4][5]. - The expectation of reduced subsidy strength in 2026 may prompt consumers to make purchases before the end of the year, potentially boosting December sales [5][9]. - Recent data shows a significant decline in vehicle sales in November, marking the first year-on-year drop in nearly three years, attributed to the withdrawal of local subsidies and consumer hesitance [7][8]. Group 3: Future Market Projections - Analysts predict that while the overall vehicle market may see positive growth in 2026, challenges remain due to policy adjustments and consumer sensitivity to subsidy changes [8][10]. - The continuation of the "Two New" policy is expected to mitigate the impact of tax changes, with some analysts forecasting stable sales in early 2026 due to strong pre-holiday consumer activity [9][10]. - The automotive industry is preparing for a new phase of market dynamics, with expectations of a "survival of the fittest" scenario as policies evolve [8][10].