美联储最新调查：企业CFO们预计明年美国物价上涨4.2%，关税仍是最担心的问题

Core Insights - CFOs in the U.S. expect significant price increases in 2026, averaging a 4.2% rise, challenging the Federal Reserve's inflation targets [1][2] - Concerns over tariffs remain a primary risk for businesses, with many CFOs indicating that inflation pressures may persist longer than anticipated [1][3] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The survey conducted among 548 CFOs revealed an average expected price increase of 4.2% for 2026, with half of the respondents anticipating increases of 3.5% or more [2] - This expectation contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's forecast, which suggests inflation could slow to within 0.5 percentage points of its 2% target by 2026 [2] Group 2: Tariff and Cost Pressures - Tariffs and trade policies remain the top concern for CFOs, despite a slight decrease in anxiety compared to earlier in the year [3] - CFOs expect unit costs to rise slightly above price increases, indicating that a 4.2% price hike may only marginally cover rising costs [3] Group 3: Business Confidence and Economic Outlook - Business optimism has declined, with the U.S. economic optimism index dropping from 62.9 to 60.2 [4] - Companies project a modest economic growth rate of approximately 1.9% for 2026, with employment expected to increase by 1.7% [4] - Less than half of the surveyed companies are actively hiring, with a notable percentage indicating no hiring plans or potential layoffs [4]