2025年不买房，5年后会后悔还是庆幸？看看马光远怎么说

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shifted dramatically, with the previous boom giving way to declining prices, leading to uncertainty about whether to buy or wait until 2025. The economist Ma Guangyuan emphasizes the importance of understanding the "three differentiations" in the market to make informed decisions about real estate investments [1][3]. Group 1: Differentiation in the Market - Urban Differentiation: There will be a stark contrast in real estate performance between core cities and small counties. Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are expected to maintain or slowly appreciate in value due to strong job markets and population influx, while small counties may see their properties lose value significantly [4]. - Regional Differentiation: Even within the same city, property values will vary greatly by location. Properties in prime areas will remain resilient, while those in less desirable locations may experience steep declines in value [5]. - Product Differentiation: The gap between high-quality and low-quality properties will widen. Newer, well-located homes will attract buyers, while older, poorly maintained properties will struggle to sell [7]. Group 2: Underlying Issues in the Market - Population Structure: The aging population and declining birth rates are leading to fewer potential homebuyers, which will negatively impact demand and property values, especially in less populated areas [9]. - Saturated Demand: The housing supply has largely met demand, with many capable buyers already having purchased homes. This leaves a gap for those who cannot afford to buy, further limiting market growth [11]. - Inventory Pressure: Excessive inventory in certain areas, particularly where population growth is stagnant, is leading to prolonged periods of unsold properties, which will continue to depress prices [12]. Group 3: Practical Advice for Buyers - For current homeowners: It is advisable to sell underperforming assets in declining markets, particularly in small counties, while considering the quality and location of properties in core cities [13]. - For potential buyers: Focus on high-quality properties in areas with strong population growth and economic stability, avoiding low-quality or remote properties that may not appreciate in value [15]. - Overall market strategy: The emphasis should be on making informed decisions based on market realities rather than speculation, as the market is expected to stabilize rather than experience dramatic fluctuations [16].