近半个世纪的最猛涨幅，依旧吓不跑黄金多头！

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold is expected to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by a growing investor base and various geopolitical factors, despite the historical context suggesting a potential market correction [2][7]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have doubled over the past two years, reaching a historical high of $4,381 in October, with predictions for further increases to $5,000 by 2026 [2][6]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan expect gold prices to average $4,500 and $4,600 respectively in 2026, with a potential peak above $5,000 in the fourth quarter [7][8]. Group 2: Central Bank Influence - Central banks have shifted their foreign exchange reserves from dollar assets to diversified allocations for five consecutive years, laying the groundwork for the gold market in 2026 [3][6]. - Global central banks purchased 634 tons of gold in the first nine months of the year, indicating strong demand that supports higher gold prices [6]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The proportion of gold assets held by investors has increased from 1.5% to 2.8% of total managed assets, suggesting a growing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - The demand for gold is partly driven by investors seeking to hedge against potential stock market downturns, with geopolitical tensions further fueling this trend [8][9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The demand for gold jewelry has declined by 23% in the third quarter, although retail demand for gold bars and coins has partially offset this decline [9][12]. - The global gold demand is projected to grow by 11% in 2025, reaching 5,150 tons, before declining to 4,815 tons in 2026 [12]. Group 5: Expansion of Investor Base - The gold investment community is expanding, particularly in Asia, with India allowing pension funds to invest in gold and silver ETFs, and China permitting certain insurance funds to invest in gold [13].