铂金年内飙涨113%，三大因素曝光

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are experiencing a significant year-end rally, with platinum prices rising sharply following substantial increases in gold and silver prices [1]. Group 1: Price Performance - As of December 17, 2023, silver leads the precious metals sector with a year-to-date increase of 128%, while platinum has risen by 113% [3]. - On December 17, domestic platinum futures opened with a strong upward trend, reaching a peak of 527.55 yuan per gram, marking the second time it hit the limit since its listing [3]. - NYMEX platinum futures prices surpassed $1,933 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 110% year-to-date, significantly outpacing gold's 64% increase [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have surged due to multiple factors, including tightening physical supply, supportive policies in the new energy sector, and geopolitical changes [5]. - The price of NYMEX platinum futures has increased by over 20% since November, with significant rises of 28% and 17% in June and September, respectively [5]. - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a global platinum market shortage of 26.4 tons in 2025, despite a 4% year-on-year decline in total demand [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current platinum price increase is attributed to three main drivers: limited supply, awakened investment demand, and long-term growth expectations [6]. - In China, retail investment demand for platinum bars and coins has reached historical highs, reflecting investor recognition of platinum's value relative to gold [6]. - The introduction of platinum futures and options in China is expected to bolster demand, while the automotive industry's ongoing adjustments to catalyst technology will continue to support platinum demand [9]. Group 4: Predictions for 2026 - There is a divergence in predictions for platinum and palladium prices in 2026, with some analysts expecting strong price increases despite potential supply surpluses [10]. - The anticipated growth in North American automotive demand could significantly impact platinum and palladium needs, with small changes in vehicle ownership rates leading to substantial demand fluctuations [10]. - Concerns about potential tariffs on platinum group metals in the U.S. could lead to market dynamics similar to those seen in the silver market this year [11].