RXO Faces Margin Pain As Truck Supply Tightens, Analyst Warns

Core Viewpoint - RXO Inc. is facing significant margin pressure due to tightening truck capacity and rising spot rates, leading to expected results falling below the company's target range [1]. Group 1: Margin Pressure and Financial Estimates - Bank of America Securities has adopted a cautious outlook on RXO, indicating that costs are increasing faster than demand recovery, which may prolong margin pressure [2]. - Analyst Ken Hoexter has lowered his fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $18 million from $25 million, which is below RXO's target of $20–$30 million [2]. - The brokerage gross margin estimate for the fourth quarter has been cut to 11.9% from 12.5%, below RXO's target of 12%–13% [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Supply-side enforcement actions related to English Language Proficiency requirements and non-compliant ELDs are contributing to tighter capacity and an increase in spot rates [4]. - Dry van spot pricing, excluding fuel, has risen to $1.73 per mile from $1.65 the previous week, indicating several weeks of significant sequential gains [4]. - Tender rejection rates have improved to approximately 10%, but these levels need to be sustained for spot volumes to increase significantly [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Price Action - Hoexter values RXO at 13.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA, considering 2027 as a mid-cycle benchmark, with key factors including capacity durability and spot recovery [7]. - RXO shares were down 4.10% at $14.04 at the time of publication [7].