Citigroup Projects Higher Q4 IB Revenues: Fee Income to Benefit?

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup, Inc. is expected to see a significant increase in investment banking fees in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by strong momentum in mergers and acquisitions and capital markets activity [1][2][9]. Group 1: Investment Banking Performance - Citigroup anticipates a mid-20% year-over-year increase in investment banking fees for Q4 2025, supported by ongoing deal-making and capital markets activity, particularly mega deals and investment-grade transactions [2][9]. - In Q3 2025, Citigroup's investment banking revenues grew by 23% year-over-year, attributed to active capital markets, a resurgence in M&A, increased IPO issuance, and strong client engagement [3]. - The bank's strategic initiatives, including business simplification and focusing on high-growth areas, are expected to enhance its ability to capture complex, high-value transactions, thereby reinforcing fee income momentum [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Competitors - Other major firms, such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, are also experiencing growth in investment banking revenues, with JPMorgan's fees rising 12.3% year-over-year to $7.3 billion in the first nine months of 2025, and Morgan Stanley's revenues increasing by 15% to $5.2 billion in the same period [5][6][7]. - Despite the strength in investment banking, Citigroup's market revenues are projected to decline in the low-to-mid single digits year-over-year for Q4 2025 [2][9]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Citigroup's shares have increased by 63.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 38.7% [8].