人民币汇率连续上行

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing a strong upward trend against the US dollar, reaching its highest levels since October 2024, driven by a combination of factors including a declining US dollar index and increased demand for currency exchange by businesses at year-end [1]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - On December 16, the offshore yuan broke the 7.04 mark against the US dollar, while the onshore yuan surpassed 7.05, both reaching new highs since October 8, 2024 [1]. - On December 17, the offshore yuan peaked at 7.03185 and the onshore yuan reached 7.0411, marking significant increases since October 4 and October 8, 2024, respectively [1]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The recent appreciation of the yuan is attributed to two main factors: the decline of the US dollar index below 100 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on December 11, and the seasonal increase in currency exchange demand from businesses at year-end [1]. - The yuan has been on a continuous upward trend since late November, achieving new highs for the year [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to the research team at CITIC Securities, the trend of a weaker US dollar index is expected to continue into 2026, suggesting a potential for moderate appreciation of the yuan [1].