Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang·2025-12-17 01:59Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing intensified competition, leading to overall underperformance of automotive stocks compared to the broader market, yet BYD stands out as a favored investment, showcasing significant market vitality and attracting international capital interest [1][15]. International Capital Interest - International investors are drawn to BYD based on rational assessments of its long-term value, with top-tier investment firms like Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley issuing "buy" or "hold" ratings, reflecting strong confidence in BYD's future growth [2][5]. - Goldman Sachs projects that BYD's overseas market will be a core growth area over the next decade, with an expected annual profit growth rate of 30% from 2025 to 2028, and overseas profit contribution rising from 21% in 2024 to 60% in 2028 [2]. - Citigroup has included BYD in its 90-day positive catalyst watchlist, anticipating higher performance returns due to new domestic models and inventory reduction effects, maintaining a "buy" rating with a target price of 174 HKD, representing a 77% premium over the closing price on December 9 [5]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts that BYD's overseas sales will reach 1.6 to 1.8 million units by 2026, with a growth rate of 68% to 89%, assigning a "hold" rating and a target price of 130 HKD for H-shares, indicating a 33% upside potential [5]. Performance and Strategic Breakthroughs - BYD has demonstrated robust sales growth in the first 11 months of the year, particularly in its high-end and global strategies, with significant sales increases in its premium sub-brands [10][12]. - The company has achieved over 910,000 overseas sales by November, doubling last year's total, and is expected to surpass one million units for the year [10]. - BYD's vertical integration across its supply chain, including key components like batteries and electric motors, enhances supply chain security and production stability, positioning the company favorably amid rising trade protectionism [12]. Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is a core driver of BYD's leadership in the electric vehicle sector, with advancements such as blade batteries and DM-i hybrid technology redefining industry standards [14]. - The company plans to unveil "heavyweight technologies" in the future, further solidifying its position as an industry innovator and enhancing growth potential [14]. Industry Landscape Transformation - BYD's rise disrupts the dominance of imported and joint venture brands in the high-end market, affirming the long-term development potential of China's electric vehicle industry [15]. - The positive outlook from international capital is expected to attract more investments into the electric vehicle sector, prompting other manufacturers to enhance their technological development and brand upgrades [15]. - BYD's success is likely to inspire more Chinese automotive companies to accelerate their global expansion, increasing the influence of Chinese automotive brands in international markets [15][17].