长期持有者持续套现 比特币再度跌破8.6万美元关口

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's price has dropped nearly 30% since reaching a historical high of over $126,000 two months ago, with significant selling pressure from long-term holders contributing to this decline [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price fell below $86,000, closing at $85,889.53, indicating a struggle to find support in the current price range [1]. - Long-term holders are selling Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate, with approximately 1.6 million Bitcoins, valued at around $140 billion, having been reactivated since the beginning of 2023 [4]. - The market is experiencing a "slow bleed," characterized by continuous selling pressure from spot markets while buying liquidity remains thin [4]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Since October 10, market pressure has intensified, with a significant liquidation event of $19 billion occurring, marking the largest leveraged liquidation in cryptocurrency history [5]. - Bitcoin's price briefly rebounded to $90,000 due to short position liquidations but quickly fell back, indicating a lack of sustained buying interest [5]. - The number of open contracts in Bitcoin options and perpetual contracts remains significantly lower than pre-October crash levels, suggesting that many traders are still in a wait-and-see mode [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the selling pressure from long-term holders may be nearing its end, with about 20% of Bitcoin supply reactivated in the past two years, approaching a critical threshold [6]. - It is anticipated that by 2026, the concentrated selling from early investors will significantly decrease, potentially leading to a market structure dominated by net buyers as Bitcoin becomes more integrated into institutional investment frameworks [6].