美元这一年（环球热点）

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year, with a 10.8% drop in the first half, marking the largest decline since 1973, reflecting a shift in global investor attitudes towards dollar assets [2][3]. Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, has seen a decline of approximately 6.5% since the end of last year, with predictions that 2025 could be the worst year for the dollar since 2017 [3]. - The Bloomberg dollar spot index has dropped nearly 8% this year, marking the largest annual decline in nearly nine years [3]. - Analysts predict that the dollar index will continue to decline, with expectations of a further drop of about 3% by the end of 2026 [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing the Dollar - The decline in the dollar index is attributed to a combination of factors, including a weakening US labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest level since October 2021 [6]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is under scrutiny, as the need for a more accommodative stance conflicts with persistent inflation pressures [6][7]. - The US government's fiscal situation, characterized by record deficits and rising debt, has led to a downgrade in the country's credit rating, further impacting confidence in the dollar [7]. Group 3: Global Implications of Dollar Weakness - The decline of the dollar index may alleviate currency depreciation pressures faced by emerging markets, allowing for more autonomous monetary policies [8]. - A weaker dollar could lead to higher prices for commodities priced in dollars, while also increasing liquidity in the global market, potentially driving capital towards emerging markets [8]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports a decrease in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, dropping from 57.79% to 56.32%, the lowest in 30 years [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts caution against concluding that the dollar is in absolute decline, noting that potential for a rebound exists if inflation rises or economic data improves [11]. - The evolving global trade and financial order may lead to a reduced reliance on the dollar, with other currencies potentially gaining prominence [11].