Huaan Securities(SH:600909) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-17 03:37Core Viewpoint - The global AI technology is shifting from training to inference, driving a new growth opportunity in the hardware supply chain [2] Summary by Category Overall - The transition from training-dominated AI to inference-driven AI is significantly increasing the demand for inference computing power, driven by the iteration of multimodal large models like Google's Gemini 3 Pro and OpenAI's Sora 2 [2] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase capital expenditures, with a forecast of $431 billion by 2025, a 65% year-on-year increase, and potentially reaching $602 billion by 2026 [2] - Sovereign AI initiatives are being launched globally, such as the U.S. "Gateway to the Stars" plan with an investment of approximately $500 billion and the EU's plan to invest $21.5 billion in AI super factories, contributing to a high-growth phase in global AI infrastructure [2] - By 2030, global AI data center capacity is projected to reach 156 GW, accounting for 71% of total data center demand [2] Cloud Side - PCB: AI servers are bringing clear value increases, with Nvidia's DGX H100 single GPU corresponding to a PCB value of $211, a 21% increase from the previous generation; the GB200 NVL72 raises the single GPU value to $346 [3] - The domestic high-end PCB capacity is expected to be released in 2026 to support downstream demand, driving upgrades in upstream materials [3] - Storage: The structural supply-demand imbalance due to AI demand has led to significant price increases in DRAM and NAND Flash, with a shift in investment focus towards high-value products expected in 2026 [3] - KVCache technology is accelerating the replacement of HDDs with QLC SSDs, with a projected 30% penetration rate in the enterprise SSD market by 2026 [3] Optical Interconnect - Optical interconnect technology is entering a new era as a key component of AI computing clusters, with optical switches meeting the interconnection needs of large-scale AI clusters due to their high bandwidth, low latency, and low power consumption [4] - The MEMS-based technology route currently dominates, with domestic manufacturers actively engaging in various segments of the global supply chain [4] End Side - AI Phones: The AI phone market is expected to maintain moderate growth in 2025, with competition shifting towards end-side AI capabilities [5] - The operating systems of mobile phones are evolving from "application launchers" to "system-level intelligent agents," with flagship chips from Apple and Android continuously enhancing NPU computing power [5] - AR Glasses: The integration of AI and AR in smart glasses is seen as the future of wearable devices, with the market experiencing rapid growth [5] - The optical imaging module solutions for AR glasses are expected to favor light guide technology due to its advantages in clarity and size, while LCOS remains the mainstream for consumer products [5] Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the shift to inference computing and hardware upgrades, including: - PCB and upstream materials: Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, Jingwang Electronics, Guanghe Technology, Dongcai Technology [6] - Storage and equipment: Beijing Junzheng, Zhaoyi Innovation, Jucheng Co., Jingzhida [6] - Optical interconnect: Yintan Zhikong, Saiwei Electronics [6] - End-side AI: GoerTek, Luxshare Precision, Baiwei Storage, Longqi Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, Zhongke Lanyun, Howey Group, Sunny Optical Technology [6]