日元加息遇美元降息，全球近20万亿美元的平仓风暴！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's core CPI has consistently exceeded the central bank's 2% target, indicating that inflation is real and necessitating interest rate adjustments, making yen rate hikes inevitable as a return to normal policy [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the US, with Japan raising rates while the Federal Reserve is expected to lower them, creates a global financial environment where carry trades are under pressure, leading to forced liquidations by investors who previously borrowed at low rates [1][3] - Historical context shows that a previous rate hike in Japan led to significant market reactions, with global stock markets losing approximately $6.4 trillion in three weeks, highlighting the systemic risks associated with carry trades [3] Group 2 - The impact of tightening external liquidity on emerging markets could lead to capital outflows and asset volatility, but the domestic market's structure and policy space provide some buffering against these risks [8] - Policy divergence not only affects carry trades but also alters global capital flows, prompting a reassessment of risk premiums and currency valuations, which will ultimately lead to a new market equilibrium despite initial chaos [9] - Investors are advised to prioritize risk management, leverage control, and liquidity assurance in light of systemic risks, as the era of cheap global funds is coming to an end, marking a significant historical shift [10]