2026年上半年国际油价或震荡筑底

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have been on a downward trend since late June 2025, with Brent crude oil prices dropping from around $79 per barrel to approximately $59 per barrel, marking a cumulative decline of 26% due to increased supply and weak demand. The prices are expected to stabilize in 2026 [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices started to rise in mid-December 2024, reaching around $82 per barrel in January 2025, but subsequently fell due to weak U.S. manufacturing PMI and a loose supply environment [2]. - OPEC+ announced a production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day for three consecutive months starting in April 2025, indicating a strategy to regain market share [2]. - By November 2025, OPEC's crude oil production rose to 28.48 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.71 million barrels per day from March [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Increased supply from OPEC+ and Russia has contributed to the weak oil price environment, with OPEC+ gradually exiting voluntary production cuts [3]. - Despite expectations of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil potentially affecting around 2 million barrels per day, the actual impact has been minimal, with Russian Urals crude trading at a discount of about $25 per barrel compared to Brent [3]. - Weak demand in the Northern Hemisphere, with U.S. petroleum product apparent demand declining by 0.3% year-on-year in November, further suppresses oil prices [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations - A reduction in upstream capital expenditures may provide some support for oil prices, as Brent crude prices falling below $60 per barrel approach the cost line for some shale oil companies [4]. - Ongoing supply risks from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran remain significant, with potential U.S. sanctions on Venezuela possibly raising oil prices by $3 to $5 per barrel if tensions escalate [5]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may boost U.S. demand and inflation, potentially supporting oil prices, with expectations of further rate cuts as inflation remains below 4% [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The oil market is expected to be oversupplied in the first half of 2026, with Brent crude prices likely to stabilize around $64 per barrel in the second half during the demand peak [6].