明天，日本加息“板上钉钉”，市场聚焦“下一步如何加”？

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years, reflecting increased confidence in achieving stable inflation targets. The market's focus has shifted from "whether to raise rates" to "how the future rate path will unfold" [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Increase - The overnight lending rate is anticipated to be increased by 25 basis points to 0.75% during the upcoming two-day meeting [1]. - This will mark the first unanimous support for a rate hike since Governor Ueda took office, with all surveyed analysts predicting an increase [2]. - The decision is bolstered by strong wage growth and manageable external risks, leading to a consensus on the rate hike [2]. Group 2: Future Rate Path - Despite the expected increase, the Bank of Japan officials believe that even at 0.75%, the rates will still be below the so-called "neutral rate" [3]. - The neutral rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2.5%, indicating potential for further rate increases beyond the immediate hike [3]. - Japan's inflation rate has consistently met or exceeded the 2% target for three and a half years, suggesting that the monetary policy remains accommodative even after the rate hike [3]. Group 3: Balancing Risks - Governor Ueda faces the challenge of balancing hawkish and dovish signals, which is crucial for managing market expectations [4]. - If the communication regarding future rate outlook is too dovish, it may lead to a depreciation of the yen, while hawkish signals could result in rising bond yields [5]. - Political factors complicate the decision-making process, as Prime Minister Kishida is known for supporting stimulus policies, making the communication between the central bank and the government critical [5].