Group 1: Oilseed Market Overview - The oilseed sector remains in a volatile pattern, with differentiated performance among various oil types. Since late November, canola oil prices have been on a downward trend, while soybean and palm oil prices have shown some resilience [1] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a significant increase in U.S. soybean oil exports, indicating a structural shift in the global vegetable oil market driven by policy and trade [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - The USDA maintained the U.S. soybean oil ending stocks forecast for the 2025/2026 season at 1.726 billion pounds, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 5.65%. This stability is supported by strong crushing demand and robust export sales [3] - U.S. soybean crushing reached a record high in October, with a volume of 237 million bushels, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 15.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [3] - U.S. soybean oil inventories rose to 1.781 billion pounds by the end of October, up 1.95% month-on-month and 11.87% year-on-year, indicating that strong crushing capacity is outpacing consumption and export [3] Group 3: Global Soybean Oil Market Dynamics - The USDA raised the global soybean oil ending stocks forecast for 2025/2026 to 5.891 million tons, an increase of 198,000 tons from the previous report. Despite a relaxed global soybean supply, soybean oil's unique industrial properties and policy drivers are expected to create a relatively independent market trend [4] Group 4: Palm Oil Supply Issues - Malaysia's palm oil inventory surged by 13% to 2.84 million tons by the end of November, exceeding market expectations and reaching the highest level since April 2019. This increase is attributed to high production levels and a sharp decline in exports [5] - November palm oil exports fell by 28.1% month-on-month to 1.21 million tons, marking a new low for the year, primarily due to weak demand from China and India [5] Group 5: Indonesian Palm Oil Production Challenges - Indonesia's palm oil production may face contraction due to severe flooding impacting infrastructure, although the Indonesian Palm Oil Association claims no significant production losses. However, logistical issues are expected to delay at least 40% of December's export volume [6] - The Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal land use is affecting palm oil plantations, with significant penalties imposed on companies, potentially leading to operational disruptions for 3-6 months [6] Group 6: Domestic Oilseed Market Conditions - As of December 12, domestic commercial inventories of soybean, palm, and canola oils totaled 2.1186 million tons, a decrease of 3.42% week-on-week, but still 9.83% higher year-on-year, indicating high supply levels that continue to pressure oil prices [7] - The price gap between soybean and palm oil has narrowed to 500 yuan per ton, with palm oil blending demand being suppressed due to high inventory levels [8]
高库存压制 油脂震荡格局难打破
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-12-18 00:39