美联储内部吵翻，11月非农CPI来袭，市场反转信号隐现

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting internal divisions among members, with a 9:3 voting result indicating differing opinions on the rate cut [4] - The Fed's decision to quietly expand its balance sheet by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills starting December 12 is seen as a move to provide liquidity to the financial system [6][8] - Market reactions have shown a clear divide, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields dropping by 3.81 basis points to 3.522%, while gold prices surged by 2.43% to $4,299 per ounce, contrasting with declines in major stock indices [10] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is facing challenges, with the government shutdown's effects becoming apparent, leading to a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts for 2025 from 1.9% to 1.7% [13] - Upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to reflect negative trends in employment, with private sector job growth showing several instances of negative growth since June [15] - The CPI data for November is uncertain due to the absence of October data, complicating inflation trend assessments, with predictions indicating a core CPI annual rate around 3% [19]