Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-18 00:57Group 1 - The refrigerant industry is currently under quota management, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance that drives prices into a long-term upward trend [1][2] - The total quota for third-generation refrigerants in China will be 802,000 tons in 2026, an increase of 3,050 tons from 2025, with major products like R32, R125, and R134a not seeing any increase in quotas [2] - The third-generation refrigerant market is highly concentrated, with the top six companies controlling over 90% of the market share, and due to performance and technical reasons, it remains irreplaceable [2] Group 2 - The demand for R134a in the automotive sector is expected to tighten further due to stable growth in the automotive sector and the rapid promotion of new energy vehicles [2][3] - The refrigerant charge amount for new energy vehicles is approximately 1,100g per vehicle, nearly a 100% increase compared to traditional gasoline vehicles, which is expected to stimulate production and sales in 2026-2027 [3] - R125, as a core component of R410A, is anticipated to see short-term demand growth due to its high GWP value and the conversion of quotas to more cost-effective low-GWP products [4]