投资看似靠运气，实则藏着硬逻辑，看懂少走十年弯路

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the misconception that investment success is purely based on luck, emphasizing that behind seemingly lucky outcomes lies a rigorous logic and understanding of market dynamics [1] Group 1: Scientific Aspects of Investment - The principle of mean reversion is highlighted as a fundamental rule in investing, indicating that after prolonged price increases, a decline is inevitable, and vice versa [3] - A case study is presented where a fund manager applied mean reversion logic, reducing exposure to a high-valued stock and reallocating to undervalued consumer sectors, resulting in top-tier performance by late 2024 [3] - The A-share market's liquor sector is cited as an example of mean reversion, demonstrating cycles of price increases and decreases, ultimately aligning with reasonable valuations [5] Group 2: Artistic Aspects of Investment - The unpredictability of market sentiment is discussed, noting that valuation is often subjective and not an exact science, as illustrated by differing valuations from renowned investors like Buffett and Munger [7] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry dynamics and market sentiment, with examples of contrasting views on the AI sector's valuation in 2025 [7] - A notable example is provided where a tech company's stock price dropped 70% due to poor performance, leading to a significant rebound of 50% after being identified as undervalued [7] Group 3: Avoiding Luck Traps - Two key principles for avoiding reliance on luck in investment are outlined: avoiding being trapped by sunk costs and considering opportunity costs [9] - A case is mentioned where an investor held onto a losing stock due to sunk costs, resulting in increased losses, highlighting the need for decisive action upon recognizing fundamental issues [11] - The importance of evaluating whether current investments are the best use of capital is stressed, with a reference to Buffett's analogy regarding player batting averages [11]