美国重磅数据将公布

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to provide insights into future policy directions for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, amid concerns about the U.S. economy's momentum and the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][3]. Data Outlook - The CPI saw a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in April, the lowest in nearly four years, but inflation rose to 3% by September, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target due to increased tariffs [3][4]. - The November CPI report is anticipated to show a slight increase in overall CPI from 3.0% to 3.1%, with core CPI expected to remain stable at 3% [4]. - Service prices, a major driver of inflation, increased by 3.5% year-on-year as of September, but this is the smallest increase since the pandemic began, indicating potential for inflation to decline if service price growth slows [4]. Federal Reserve Internal Disagreements - Recent surveys indicate that U.S. economic growth is facing obstacles, with rising prices due to tariffs suppressing consumer demand and leading to tighter hiring policies [5][6]. - Retail sales showed no growth in October, particularly affecting low-income households, while high-income households continue to drive non-essential spending, highlighting a widening economic gap [5]. - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times since September, but Chairman Powell indicated that further cuts are unlikely until labor market and inflation trends are clearer [5][6]. Future Projections - The Federal Reserve's updated dot plot suggests only one rate cut may occur this year, while futures markets indicate a nearly 80% probability of a cut by June [7]. - The complexity of future rate cuts will depend on employment and inflation performance, with potential resistance from hawkish members of the Fed if the labor market remains stable [7]. - The impact of a new Federal Reserve chair is uncertain, with expectations that significant rate cuts may only occur in response to rising recession fears, which could negatively affect the Republican midterm election outlook [7].