新茶饮不是倒在价格战

Core Insights - The decline of new tea beverage brands, exemplified by Heytea closing over 600 stores, indicates a significant challenge in the industry's expansion strategy [1] - The rapid growth of store numbers has not translated into profitability, with many brands facing pressure on single-store performance [3][5] - The shift to a franchise model has not alleviated the financial burdens on franchisees, leading to increased closures and operational difficulties [7][11] Industry Overview - As of October 2024, Heytea had 4,610 stores, but this number is projected to drop to 3,930 by October 2025, marking a net decrease of 680 stores in one year [3] - Other brands, such as Bawang Chaji, are also experiencing profit declines despite increasing store counts, with adjusted net profits dropping by 22.23% year-over-year [3] - The overall market is seeing a decline in same-store sales, with Heytea's monthly GMV per store down 28.3% [5] Franchise Model Challenges - Franchisees are reporting extended payback periods, often exceeding 18 months, due to high operational costs and insufficient sales [7][18] - Complaints from franchisees include high operational costs and inadequate support from the franchisor, leading to inefficiencies [7] - The franchise model, initially seen as a growth lever, is now revealing significant risks as profitability at the store level diminishes [18] Competitive Landscape - The market is becoming increasingly crowded, with many brands competing on price rather than quality, leading to thinner profit margins [8][21] - The rise of mid-tier brands with established franchise systems is intensifying competition, forcing established brands to engage in price wars [8][21] - The consumer preference is shifting towards more affordable options, as seen with the growth of brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Tea [21][25] Economic Context - The overall economic environment is affecting consumer spending, with retail sales growth slowing to 2.9% year-over-year as of October 2025 [23] - The shift in consumer behavior towards more budget-conscious spending is impacting non-essential goods like premium tea beverages [23][25] - The industry is facing a hard constraint as the high-margin growth period ends, forcing brands to adapt to a more competitive and price-sensitive market [23][27] Future Directions - The industry may need to pivot towards creating more frequent and everyday products, reducing reliance on high-margin narratives [27] - Alternatively, weaker players may exit the market, leading to a reduction in supply and potentially healthier competition in the long run [27] - The focus will shift from merely expanding store counts to ensuring each store can operate profitably under real market conditions [27]