2026年商业与支付趋势报告（英文版）-Global Payments

Core Insights - The report highlights that AI empowerment, scenario integration, and technological innovation are the core forces driving industry transformation, reshaping the commercial payment ecosystem with six major trends [1] Group 1: AI-Enabled Commerce - AI shopping agents are emerging as a new growth point, with 87% of businesses aware of them, particularly in retail (25% familiarity). These agents can reduce e-commerce cart abandonment rates by 66%, potentially generating an additional $240 billion in global e-commerce revenue [2] - Concerns regarding security fraud, dispute resolution, and algorithmic bias persist, with 42% of businesses expressing worries, and only 11% of consumers currently allowing AI agents to complete payments [2] Group 2: POS Revolution - Mobile POS and cloud systems are becoming mainstream, with 85% of mid-sized U.S. retailers relying on mobile POS solutions. Modern POS systems integrate real-time data analytics (57% prioritize this), inventory management, and CRM functionalities [3] - Biometric technologies are widely adopted, enhancing efficiency and security, with some restaurants achieving the capability to serve 40 cars in 15 minutes through voice ordering. However, system integration remains a significant pain point, with 32% of businesses citing it [3] Group 3: Embedded Finance - The embedded finance market is projected to reach $92 billion in 2024 and $228 billion by 2028, with "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) being a core application. 51% of retail businesses report revenue increases of over 25% from BNPL [4] - 71% of businesses express interest in integrating AI for real-time credit assessment and fraud detection, with significant regional differences in adoption rates [4] Group 4: Instant Payments - 31% of businesses have adopted instant payments, surpassing embedded finance (10%) and self-service technologies (5%). Key use cases include consumer refunds (72%) and gig worker payments (63% in Asia-Pacific) [5] - The rapid development of global real-time payment systems like FedNow (U.S.), UPI (India), and PIX (Brazil) is noted, although cross-border payments face limitations due to SWIFT processes [5] Group 5: Rise of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are gaining attention for their low volatility and cost advantages, with 72% acceptance among North American businesses. Large enterprises prefer them for cross-border payments and currency hedging [6] - Regulatory challenges and transparency issues hinder adoption, with stablecoins currently accounting for less than 1% of global transfer volumes [6] Group 6: Self-Service Payments - Self-service payment scenarios are expanding, with 83% of businesses planning to increase automation in the next two years. Technologies like smart kiosks and unmanned checkouts are enhancing transaction efficiency, leading to a 20% increase in order amounts at McDonald's [7] - Adoption rates vary significantly by region, with Asia-Pacific (100%) and Europe (94%) leading, while North America (79%) and Latin America (38%) lag behind [7] Conclusion - The commercial payment industry in 2026 is characterized by "technology-driven, scenario integration, and security-first" features. Businesses need to focus on technology integration and compliance management, aligning with core trends like AI agents and embedded finance to achieve efficiency and experience optimization [7]