油价有望开启回升周期，石化ETF（159731）布局价值进一步提升

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index demonstrating strong gains, particularly driven by leading stocks in the sector. The outlook for oil prices may improve due to supply constraints and slow demand growth [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 18, the major A-share indices exhibited a mixed performance, with the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index rising over 1% during the session [1]. - Leading stocks such as Yangnong Chemical, Zhongfu Shenying, and Huafeng Chemical contributed significantly to the index's gains [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Xinda Securities, by 2027, the major uncertainties on the supply side will diminish as the large-scale production increase cycle by OPEC+ is expected to conclude around 2025 [1]. - Global supply growth will increasingly depend on the natural production of already invested projects, which are constrained by long production cycles and declining output from aging oil fields [1]. - The oil market may stop accumulating inventory amid slow demand growth, creating favorable conditions for a potential recovery in oil prices [1]. Group 3: Industry Composition - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index [1]. - In terms of industry distribution, the basic chemical sector accounts for 60.1%, while the petroleum and petrochemical sector represents 32.7% [1]. - The value of the industry chain is expected to further enhance as the petrochemical sector eliminates outdated capacity and strengthens technological innovation [1].