碳酸锂目标价18000美元！摩根大通对锂价极为乐观，上调所有纯锂矿商评级至“增持”

Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is facing a more severe supply shortage than previously anticipated due to a surge in demand, leading to significant price increases for lithium carbonate and spodumene [1][7][8]. Demand Dynamics - The growth in lithium demand is primarily driven by energy storage systems (ESS) and electric commercial vehicles (CV), with forecasts for global ESS production in 2026 raised by 17% to 900 GWh, and a projected increase in ESS's share of total lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) demand from 32% in 2026 to 38% by 2030 [2][3]. - The demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector, has been significantly revised upwards, with projections for battery demand from 2026 to 2030 increased by 4% to 22% [2][3]. Supply Constraints - Despite anticipated supply growth from regions like China, Africa, and Australia, the report emphasizes that the response from the supply side is lagging behind the rapid demand increase, with supply expected to grow only 7% in 2026 and 14%-18% from 2027 to 2030 [6]. Price Forecast Adjustments - The supply-demand imbalance is projected to create a shortfall of 4% to 7% of total demand in the mid-term, necessitating higher prices to stimulate new supply [7]. - Price forecasts for lithium carbonate have been raised to $18,000 per ton and for spodumene to $2,000 per ton, reflecting the tightening market conditions [8][10]. Stock Ratings and Price Targets - Following the optimistic outlook for lithium prices, JPMorgan has upgraded all pure lithium mining stocks to "Overweight" and raised their price targets significantly, indicating substantial upside potential for these stocks [1][10].