年度跌宕创纪录，美元这一年发生了什么？

Group 1 - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the year, with a 10.8% drop in the first half, marking the largest decline since 1973 [1] - The decline in the dollar index reflects a shift in global investor attitudes towards dollar assets, indicating a gradual erosion of the dollar's "privileged halo" as a dominant and safe-haven asset [1][2] - Predictions suggest that the dollar index will continue to decline, with major banks forecasting a further drop of about 3% by the end of 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - The attractiveness of US dollar assets has diminished, with significant sell-offs in US Treasury bonds following the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" in April 2025, leading to a loss of investor confidence [3][5] - The US labor market's weakness and rising unemployment rates are contributing to the bearish outlook on the dollar, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.6% in November, the highest since October 2021 [4][5] - Political factors are also influencing the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, raising concerns about potential aggressive easing measures that could further weaken the dollar [5][6] Group 3 - The dollar's status as the world's dominant currency is facing unprecedented challenges, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 56.32%, the lowest in 30 years [7] - Experts highlight that the decline of the dollar's dominance could lead to increased instability in the global economy and financial markets, as investors seek to hedge against currency risks [6][7] - The long-term outlook suggests a shift towards a more diversified currency system, with potential growth for other international currencies and assets like gold [9][10]