3500亿美元大挪移! 摩根大通撤出美联储账户 转向猛买美债 真金白银押注降息延续

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase has withdrawn nearly $350 billion in cash from its Federal Reserve account since 2023, reallocating a similar amount into U.S. government bonds to prepare for a long-term decline in interest rates, which is expected to benefit net interest income [1][2] Group 1: JPMorgan's Cash Withdrawal and Bond Investment - JPMorgan has reduced its Federal Reserve account balance from $409 billion at the end of 2023 to $63 billion by Q3 2025 [1] - The bank has increased its holdings in U.S. Treasury securities from $231 billion to $450 billion, indicating a strategy to secure higher yields even as the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [1][2] Group 2: Interest Rate Trends and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates above 5% in response to the highest inflation in 40 years, but is expected to begin lowering rates by the end of 2024 as inflation pressures ease [2] - The target range for the federal funds rate has been lowered to 3.50%–3.75%, the lowest level in three years, which impacts the interest earned on reserves held at the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Large banks like JPMorgan increasing their Treasury holdings can create sustained buying pressure, which may raise bond prices and lower yields, benefiting long-term Treasury yields [3] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower rates twice in 2026, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, while JPMorgan's economists predict only one rate cut [3][4]