Is Micron Stock a Buy Ahead of Q1 Earnings on December 17?

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology is expected to report strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, driven by high market expectations and optimistic management guidance, with potential record revenue and earnings anticipated [1]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Micron will release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on December 17, with management previously indicating the possibility of record revenue and earnings [1]. - The upcoming results are likely to reflect strong demand from AI workloads and improving pricing dynamics, particularly from data centers [5]. Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing - The rapid expansion of AI-led data centers is driving demand for Micron's memory and storage solutions, particularly for DRAM and NAND chips, which are experiencing improved pricing conditions [2]. - Higher average selling prices and rising volumes are expected to contribute to margin expansion and stronger earnings per share (EPS) for Micron [2]. Group 3: Stock Sensitivity and Market Expectations - Despite favorable fundamentals, Micron's shares have historically declined after earnings announcements, indicating high sensitivity to market expectations and near-term guidance [3]. - The options market indicates traders expect a notable post-earnings move of approximately 9.7% in either direction, which is higher than the average post-earnings move of about 7% over the past four quarters [4]. Group 4: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Growth - Micron's High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) business is experiencing strong growth, with an annualized run rate of approximately $8 billion, driven by the adoption of HBM3E products across leading AI platforms [6]. - The majority of Micron's HBM3E supply is already priced and committed through 2026, providing revenue visibility for the upcoming quarters [6].