温彬：2026年预计10Y国债利率中枢小幅上移的可能性更大

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, suggests that the bond market interest rates will experience a rapid decline from the end of 2024 to early 2025, indicating an overpricing of monetary policy easing and weakening fundamentals [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Projections - After the interest rate cut in May 2025, the 10-year government bond yield did not show a significant decline and continued to rise in the second half of the year, reflecting a correction of previous overpricing [1] - For 2026, the impact of monetary policy is expected to become more neutral, with marginal improvements in fundamentals gradually influencing the pricing of bond market interest rates [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Considering the new regulations for public funds and the rectification of wealth management valuations, there is an anticipated diversion of funds from the bond market [1] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to have a slight upward shift, likely operating within the range of 1.6% to 2.0% [1]