恒逸石化(000703)：恒业蓄势 逸待东风

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading integrated enterprise in the "refining-chemical-fiber" sector, focusing on polyester and chemical fiber production, with a strong emphasis on upstream expansion and international projects, particularly in Brunei [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 1974 and officially formed as Zhejiang Hengyi Group in 1994, with its subsidiary Hengyi Petrochemical listed in 2011 [1] - The company has gradually divested from textile dyeing and printing, concentrating on chemical fiber and polyester industries, and has developed a complete industrial chain from crude oil processing to chemical fiber products [1] - Current production capacities include 8 million tons of refining, 21.5 million tons of PTA, and 13.25 million tons of polymerization, showcasing global competitiveness [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 83.885 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 231 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.1%, indicating a stabilization in operational performance [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The overseas cracking price spread has expanded due to reduced Russian refining capacity, benefiting the company's Brunei refining project, which has a crude oil processing capacity of 8 million tons [2] - The company’s refining segment is expected to recover profitability due to favorable overseas price spreads, with ongoing developments in the Brunei Phase II project aimed at reducing production costs and optimizing product structure [2] Group 4: Industry Trends - The PTA, polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and caprolactam sectors are experiencing a "reverse involution," with expectations for improved profitability as industry policies are implemented [3][4] - The PTA supply side is seeing a slowdown in capacity expansion, with projected industry output growth of 4% in 2026 and 2027, while demand is expected to increase due to new downstream capacities [4] - The polyester filament sector is also stabilizing, with a balanced supply-demand outlook and expected growth in both domestic and export markets [5] Group 5: New Initiatives - The company is advancing a circular new materials project, with plans to produce 300,000 tons of BHET, leveraging a network of textile recycling points to promote resource circularity and reduce reliance on traditional petrochemical materials [8] Group 6: Investment Outlook - Revenue growth is projected at -13.7%, 5.9%, and 2.3% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth expected at 41.6%, 429.6%, and 27.7% respectively, supported by the company's unique position in overseas refining operations [9] - A target price of 11.96 yuan per share is set for 2026, with an initial buy rating assigned [9]