今年财政支出进度偏慢，有望超收1万亿元支持明年政策更积极

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January to November indicates a slight increase in public budget revenue and expenditure, but the growth rate is slowing down, reflecting economic pressures and constraints on local government spending [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year, showing a deceleration compared to the previous months [1]. - The completion rate of general public budget revenue for the year is 91.2%, while expenditure stands at 83.7%, indicating a slower spending pace [1]. - The broad fiscal revenue for the same period completed 85.3% of the target, with broad fiscal expenditure at 80.7%, highlighting a significant lag in spending [1]. Group 2: Economic Context and Constraints - The slow expenditure growth is attributed to pressures on fiscal revenue and constraints from local debt management and fiscal policies aimed at "increasing revenue and reducing expenditure" [2]. - Broad fiscal revenue decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with government fund budget revenue dropping by 4.9%, indicating a worsening trend compared to earlier months [2]. - The focus on debt management has led to a preference for using fiscal funds for debt resolution and clearing overdue payments, which limits local spending willingness [2]. Group 3: Future Fiscal Policy and Projections - Analysts suggest that to enhance spending, existing fiscal tools should be utilized effectively, including accelerating the use of special bonds and ensuring timely disbursement of funds for new policies [4]. - The expectation is that if the current revenue growth trend continues, the public budget revenue will meet the annual target, with a potential surplus that could support future expenditures [4]. - The upcoming fiscal policy is anticipated to maintain a similar expansionary stance as this year, with an emphasis on social welfare and consumption [8].