低空经济2025：热潮、泡沫与真价值的博弈

Core Insights - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal point for the low-altitude economy in China, marking its transition from conceptualization to practical application, driven by strong policy support and market demand [2][3][4]. Policy and Market Dynamics - Continuous policy incentives have catalyzed the growth of the low-altitude economy, with 2024 being recognized as its inaugural year due to its inclusion in government reports and subsequent policy implementations [3][4]. - The market size of China's low-altitude economy reached 505.95 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 33.8%, and is projected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025 [3][4]. Regional Development Initiatives - By 2025, 31 provinces in China have incorporated low-altitude economy strategies into their government work reports, enhancing infrastructure and providing financial support [4][5]. - Various regions are developing specialized plans for low-altitude economic growth, with significant investments in technology, infrastructure, and talent acquisition [5][6]. Investment Trends - Despite a cooling in the capital market, with a 15.2% decrease in financing events and an 8% drop in amounts in the first half of 2025, there is a notable concentration of capital towards companies with core technologies and clear business models [8][6]. - The number of low-altitude economy-related enterprises in China has surpassed 97,000, with over 24,000 new registrations in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [8]. Application Scenarios - The low-altitude economy is witnessing a diverse range of applications, including logistics, emergency rescue, industrial inspection, and low-altitude tourism, with a clear stratification in maturity levels based on demand, cost recovery, and policy support [9][10]. - Basic applications like industrial inspection and agricultural protection have transitioned from optional to essential, driven by cost efficiency and improved operational effectiveness [10][12]. Commercialization Challenges - The low-altitude logistics sector is at a critical juncture, with rapid development expected but facing challenges in infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and operational costs [15][21]. - Emerging sectors like low-altitude tourism and medical delivery are still in exploratory phases, facing hurdles such as high operational costs and regulatory constraints [15][21]. Order Dynamics and Market Realities - The year 2025 has seen a surge in eVTOL orders, with significant contracts announced, although many are non-binding intentions rather than confirmed sales [16][17]. - The disparity between high order volumes and operational losses highlights the ongoing challenges in achieving commercial viability within the low-altitude economy [17][19]. Future Outlook - The low-altitude economy is expected to evolve from a phase of exploration to one of scale and regular application, contingent on improved policies, infrastructure, and market conditions [22][23]. - The industry is anticipated to undergo a transformation similar to that of the electric vehicle sector, with potential for rapid advancement and cost reduction through shared technologies [23][24].