分析师：铜市下一轮短缺是结构性的，而非炒作

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the copper market will face structural shortages starting in 2026 due to the growth in electrification demand outpacing new supply [1] - The report highlights that the demand for copper is expected to double by 2045 due to the energy transition, driven by the rapid growth of data centers, grid expansion, and the proliferation of electric vehicles [1] - Supply constraints are already evident, with mining disruptions in Chile, Indonesia, and Peru leading to tighter market conditions [1] Group 2 - The report estimates that without new mining projects or significant increases in copper recycling, the copper deficit could reach 19 million tons by 2050 [1] - In contrast, lithium supply is expected to continue growing, with total capacity projected to increase from 1.5 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025 to 4.4 million tons by 2035 [1] - Although lithium prices have decreased from a peak of $80,000 per ton in 2022 and have remained low, recent supply disruptions and subsidy cuts have led to a slight price rebound [1]