Group 1 - The year 2025 is characterized by a notable dissonance between macro fundamentals and asset prices, primarily due to supply-side shocks exceeding demand fluctuations [1][2] - The impact of tariff shocks on the US economy continues to contribute to "stagflation," complicating the Federal Reserve's balancing act between unemployment and inflation, making the path to interest rate cuts uncertain [2][3] - The development of AI technology remains a long-term narrative supported by monetary environments and industrial policies, but leading US tech companies are now facing trade-offs between cash flow and return on investment, leading to a convergence of high profit expectations towards reality [3] Group 2 - Looking ahead, China's economic growth rate faces challenges from high base effects, with counter-cyclical policies expected to gradually intensify [5][7] - The overall price decline in China is anticipated to narrow due to low base effects, while nominal GDP growth is expected to rebound quarter by quarter [7]
伍戈：明年初我国经济同比增速面临高基数等掣肘，逆周期政策有望逐步加码
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-18 05:37