马来亚银行预警：菲律宾比索或于2026年下半年承压走软

Core Viewpoint - The Philippine peso is expected to weaken in the second half of 2026 due to a projected strengthening of the US dollar and ongoing domestic challenges in the Philippines [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges - The Philippines is currently facing internal challenges primarily stemming from a corruption scandal related to flood funding, which has suppressed government spending and hindered overall economic growth [1] - The scandal has negatively impacted foreign investor sentiment, exerting downward pressure on portfolio capital flows and local asset prices [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - In response to these challenges, the likelihood of the Philippine central bank implementing further monetary easing has increased [1] - Economists at Malayan Banking expect the central bank to potentially cut interest rates by an additional 50 basis points by the end of 2026, aimed at supporting economic growth [1] - However, this move may weaken the peso's interest rate advantage compared to other emerging market currencies, reducing its attractiveness to international capital seeking arbitrage opportunities [1]