在此背景下，菲律宾央行进一步实施货币宽松政策的可能性上升。马来亚银行经济学家预计，截至2026 年底，菲律宾央行或额外降息50个基点。此举虽意在支撑经济增长，但也将削弱比索相对于其他新兴市 场货币的利差优势，从而降低其对寻求套利收益的国际资本的吸引力。 新华财经北京12月18日电马来亚银行证券分析师发布预测指出，菲律宾比索可能在2026年下半年走软。 该判断基于美元预计将在同期重拾强势，以及菲律宾国内持续存在的不利因素。 据分析，当前菲律宾面临的内部挑战主要源于一起防洪资金腐败丑闻。该事件已对政府支出形成抑制， 并对整体经济增长构成拖累。与此同时，丑闻亦对外国投资者情绪造成打击，进而对投资组合资金流动 及本地资产价格施加下行压力。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - French Agricultural Credit Bank analysts indicate that Japan's corporate capital expenditure is expected to become cautious due to U.S. tariffs and concerns over global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a quarter-on-quarter contraction in Japan's economy in Q3 2025 [2] - Barclays Bank reports a surge in European high-yield bond issuance driven by refinancing needs and increased dividend payments, with issuance surpassing €80 billion since 2025, marking the second-highest level for the period [2] - ING analysts suggest that if geopolitical risks ease, the dollar may face downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand, while strong U.S. inflation data has led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe the Bank of England may maintain a cautious interest rate stance for the remainder of 2025, with expectations to pause rate cuts in September and December, providing key support for the pound [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is cautious regarding the US CPI data, and unless there are clear signs of increased price pressure from tariffs, the inflation report is unlikely to significantly alter expectations for a Fed rate cut or further easing in September [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Malayan Bank indicate that the market sentiment is cautious about the upcoming US CPI data [1] - There is an expectation that the inflation report will not lead to major changes in market predictions for the Federal Reserve's actions in September [1] - The focus remains on the potential impact of tariffs on price pressures, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Maybank economists suggest that the Bank of Thailand may lower policy interest rates in August due to a more evident economic slowdown [1] Economic Outlook - The report indicates that by August, the Bank of Thailand should have a clearer understanding of the impact of U.S. tariff policies and domestic political factors on the economic trajectory [1] - The central bank has signaled a more dovish stance, anticipating weaker GDP growth in the second half of the year due to trade headwinds and sluggish consumption [1]