TrendForce：光伏产业链挺价态势明确 二季度有望迎来全线顺价行情

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing a clear price stabilization trend due to inventory digestion and storage efforts, with significant price increases observed across various segments, including polysilicon, wafers, battery cells, and modules. The expectation is for prices to rise further in the second quarter as seasonal demand rebounds and upstream cost pressures are fully transmitted [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon manufacturers have collectively raised prices to 65 RMB/kg, signaling a strong price support stance despite current transaction prices remaining in the 51-53 RMB/kg range. This indicates a bottoming signal for the industry [2]. - The industry is expected to enter a phase of price increases due to the gradual digestion of excess capacity and the effects of storage, leading to a trend of rising prices in the future [2]. Wafers - Wafer inventory has rapidly decreased to below 15 GW, prompting manufacturers to adopt a "warehouse closure and price increase" strategy. The market is currently in a heated negotiation phase regarding price direction [3]. - Although manufacturers anticipate a price increase of up to 0.3 RMB/W, achieving this in the short term may be challenging due to end-user acceptance and transmission mechanisms. However, a price increase of at least 0.05 RMB/W is expected in the near term due to low inventory levels [3]. Battery Cells - A strong price surge has occurred in the battery cell segment, with leading manufacturers halting shipments of low-priced orders below 0.3 RMB/W, which has led to a collective price increase among secondary manufacturers [4]. - Despite the internal market negotiations being intense due to weak end-user demand, the battery cell segment is expected to solidify a price floor above 0.3 RMB/W following an industry self-discipline meeting scheduled for December 18 [4]. Modules - Although current terminal demand is weak, leading manufacturers like Longi have initiated price increases of 0.04 RMB/W to guide the market price upward. The disappearance of low-priced orders is expected to create space for an increase in overall transaction prices [5]. - The module segment is anticipated to experience a genuine price increase in the second quarter, following a period of inventory digestion and seasonal demand recovery, thus moving out of the current loss zone [5].