恒生银行：上调今年港GDP增长预测至3.2%，预期明年2.5%

Group 1 - Hang Seng Bank has raised its GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong to 3.2% for this year, with an expected growth of 2.5% for next year [1] - The bank notes that the positive effects of foreign trade are diminishing, and the "export rush" is weakening, leading to a slowdown in growth next year due to high base effects [1] - Local demand is showing signs of a preliminary rebound, and the expansion of recovery is expected to boost business and consumer confidence [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong has benefited from increased global liquidity this year, but the nearing end of the interest rate cut cycle by major and regional central banks poses certain risks [1] - The bank anticipates that if the new Federal Reserve chair adopts a dovish stance, the Fed may lower interest rates twice next year, which could lead to a slight decline in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), positively impacting the real estate market [1]