Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-18 06:25Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 forecasts that the U.S. economic growth rate and unemployment rate may stabilize by 2026, with inflation expected to decrease before rising again, and the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates once in June [1] Economic Indicators - In October, the U.S. added significantly fewer non-farm jobs due to the end of government layoffs from earlier in the year, while private employment continued to expand [1] - November saw a rebound in non-farm job additions, exceeding market expectations, primarily concentrated in construction, healthcare, and educational services [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, marking a nearly four-year high [1] Employment Market Analysis - The non-farm employment data for October is considered noisy due to missing information caused by the government shutdown, leading to a mild market reaction [1] - Overall, the employment market shows signs of weakness but has not deteriorated significantly [1] - There was a slight improvement in the number of initial and continuing unemployment claims, and the service sector PMI employment index and job postings on Indeed have rebounded, indicating resilience in the job market [1]